Oil - Black gold or White Elephant - the Bust that must inevitably come

Why oh why do i feel like the price of oil is going to come a tumbling down?

So we have a weak dollar no longer trading at parity with some of the middle eastern currency, we have a strengthening China with an insatiable demand for oil... a china that will probably also decouple its currency in the 3rd or 4th quarter of 08.... and we have a US recession, no looming but already started....

All these factors tell me oil will become a more expensive commodity because the dollar has less buying power, the big question is though how low will the dollar go....

Why do i ask this, well we know that the oil supply is finite and some major fields are slowing production, therefore it is only natural that the price rise somewhat as the "owners" of the oil try to capitalize on the sole supporter of their economy (some like Dubai are trying to turn themselves into tourism hot spots and free trade zones so they have something to fall back on - very commendable and progressive)

Canada's oil fields are fairly poor quality, thick and viscous, Texas and Central America have nice sweet crude but alot of the surface supply is tapped and deeper drilling and exploration is more costly and risky, Alaska and Russia have a strong supply, there is always Brunei and of course the Middle East.

America consumes at least 20% of the worlds oil, but China and India are gaining fast, so what will the outcome be????

I think what is happening right now is the weakness of the capital markets have driven the spectators and many investors towards solid commodities, tangiable items that they feel are safe, this makes sense, Gold is tangiable, it is considered by many to be fairly inflation proof although i am not so sure with currencies having been decoupled quite how much this applies in reality.... Platinum and other metals with high value uses i like better, which leaves you with something like oil.....We all know ethanol isnt going to take over the work, I have tried HHO ands it isnt so hot, Hydrogen would be perfect but the car manufactureres and oil companies are too strong and have to much of a vested interest to let the money spinner go until they have to.... Note most of them are using their immense profits to diversify into Wind and Solar farms as well as Nuclear power plants!!! They are planning forward with their current wealth as the middle eastern nations are!!!

Thus we see why Oil has run up, and why it has run up beyond its true value, like the real estate boom and the tech boom, investors have a pack or herd mentality and are piling into a good thing, not realising that they are making the early smart front runners rich as is always the way. These individuals will soon pile out with Billions of dollars in profit leaving people holding overpriced assets!!!

I expect Oil to be sub $100 within 12-18 months possibly sooner and i think anyone buying oil futures and options based on growth and increased prices are going to be caught with their trousers down!!!

Which does lead us back to Real Estate which is in the process of crashing, far from done and far from bottomed out, we will see the best buying opprtunities of the next 20 years within 2 years, lets sell some Oil Futures to provide the cash we need to buy all the property that the people who are currently speculating on oil will loose to foreclosure........

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Popular Culture

I had a revelation

It occurred to me tonight wasn't that Pop Idol has succeeded and become a part of popular culture, what astounded me was my realization that it was essentially a draft (NFL, NBA, College etc) Anyone of the top 10 or 20 or however many it was were on the show tonight had to attract a contract tonight or fade into history forever....

I had always seen it as a last chance or only chance for many who do not have the right network to get a break. A way to find out who 13 year old girls have a crush on so you can sell them single (they are really who buy singles for the charts, adults buy albums)

Then it got really scary they started putting people like Seal next two the acts and wow what a difference, the only one who could potentially hold his own was David Cook with Bryan Adams as they sound so alike.

Most of all, what pop idol shows you is how incredibly talented a lot of the singers today and of yesteryear have been and also what these new fad singers are missing. Thank g-d even with all the judges pushing that the talented David Cook won out, Bono, George
Michael, Bruce Springsteen and Bryan Adams have acquired another member of the raspy voice brigade

At least we can look forward to so you think you can dance where we get some real truly amazing talent!



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Entrepreneurial Myth

America is full of so called entrepreneurs, over 1,000,000 new businesses are established every year, about 2700 a day...

What most people dont understand is that they are buying themselves a job, they are not entrpreneurs, they do not have an established exit strategy, they do not have clearly defined goals with detailed steps of how they plan to reach those goals....

I do not look at any investment or deal without working out how i walk away from it, what my payoff is, how i will deal with unexpected misfortune.... Risk management is about thinking out everything that can go wrong and how to avoid it, success is planned for by understanding everything that may cause you to fail and not reach your goal.... ignoring this and calling it positive thinking is much like an ostrich burying its head in the sand.

So before you call yourself an entrepreneur, do you have clearly defined exit strategies and and have you sought out solutions to every outcome imaginable

Alternatively do you work for someone and feel that you are making them all the money and if you set up by yourself you could make more, do you feel that your expertise in a niche field is going to allow you to beat your competitors, because the thing that makes you a business owner is the ability to delegate, train and implement systems and strategies for success. Otherwise you just bought yourself a job......

Beware if you do buy yourself a job you may end up working "IN" your business rather than "ON" it and this means you may end up working longer hours for lower pay and not be able to take holidays and get a way..... I you ask anyone running their own business if they were to walk away how much would it cost them to hire someone or several people required to do their job and how much would it cost. If this figure is lower than you are paying yourself then why? and did you just buy a job and underpay yourself, you will be more dissatisfied than when it was all someone else's problem....

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Travelling like a true Road Warrior

Everyone talks about the big things in travel, I want to bring up a few of the smaller items that people so often omit or don't even know about, the creature comforts that make travel not just easier but a pleasure. Her is my top 12 items that could change your perspective......

1) The difference between a 5* hotel and a 1* is invariably their sheets - I turn the worst bed into a luxury with a 100% Silk Travel Liner. It comes complete with a pillow pocket so that even my head is lying upon the finest silk and it all fits in a 3x2" 6oz bag.
You can buy one for $60 from REI - http://www.rei.com/product/695429

2) Never check a bag again or borrow an iron. Use Space Saver Vacuum Bags are the best way to pack for travel, they will compress your clothes to 1/4 or 1/8th the size, they will leave the clothes wrinkle free and the airport TSA staff wont open them and mess up, touch or expose your clothes/ dirty laundry in public. I always carry 3 - 1 clean, 1 dirty and a back up.
You can buy them for $20 from Bed Bath & Beyond

3) Rain X Wipes - These could and will save your life, grab one and give your windows a quick wipe before you set off and for the next 3 days, no matter how much rain or snow fall you will be able to clearly see your way - make sure you get wipes as TSA will remove the liquid.

4) Buy your own GPS - It will cost you from $150 for a basic system up to 350 if you want traffic - this will take a lot of the stress out of finding your job, your hotel and your way late at night in the dark. If you work it out renting units will be more costly within 10 days. I also program my job and hotels prior to leaving home or in the airport or even on the flight so that I dont have to deal with it when I arrive and I know what time I will arrive

5) Energizer battery charger - plug it into your phone or your computer and use normal batteries to get you by!

6) Dry Cleaner Secret - Put any suit or piece of clothing in a tumble dryer for 20 minutes on medium heat and it comes out like new

7) Yak Trax are indispensables in snow and ice if you don't want to end up on your ass or looking like one! Slip them on over and pair of shoes for perfect traction in any conditions. Visit http://yaktrax.com/productspro.aspx but shop around you can get a pro for as little as $16.95

8) The dreaded 4S's may seem like an excerpt from the 7 deadly sins to you but to the frequent air traveler 4 SSSS 's in the bottom right hand corner of your ticket means extra special attention from the TSA. Your going to get everything searched and its gonna take and extra 10-50 minutes to get through security as a result..... Avoid this like the plague, adding an airline frequent flyer program and talking to your airline can reduce how often you face this problem, especially when you have last minute, one way tickets!

9) Clinical Strength Deodorant makes sure you make it through a long harrowing and often energetic day without any telltale wet patches or odor - add anti odor, anti bacterial, cooling undershirt for the perfect finish and finish with a 50ml bottle of EDT aftershave for that fresh scent.

A little more Expensive but these items make a huge difference for me:

9) IPOD Shuffle/ Noise Canceling Headphones/ Eagle Creek Travel Pillow/ Eye Mask - primarily used as white noise to block out the crying babies, engine roar on props and insulate me from the rest of the world for a little while. The travel pillow has a great pocket it folds up into and also allows you to carry all your travel items in one place - i keep my mask and ipod etc in there all the time.

10) Tom Bihn Empire builder suitcase and Brain Cell are the perfect briefcase and laptop combination. Whilst expensive the pockets are so well thought out it makes work and travel a breeze, the padded laptop case means you can drop your bag by mistake and get away with it. It will also ride ontop of your work case effortlessly.

11) You will think i am mad but quality pays for itself - Victorinox 22" Carry on plus Suit Carrier is expensive but should it break for any reason the company will get a brand new bag to you within 24 hours for free and that is for life. Expect to go through 2 lesser cases a year, so go figure, little extra upfront saves a lot of hassle in the long term.

12) Tablet notebook computer- laugh at me all you want but 20% of my jobs are a go as soon as i pull the computer out and start writing on the screen like a notepad. It saves you carrying pads of paper and writing up your notes later - use all the free time you have for the recognition training and it will virtually never make a mistake.

I hope this helps ease the woes of Travel

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Very Politically Incorrect

I know I am going where no one should go but I have a few very contentious statements, comments and questions? No one seems to be voicing these out loud but I am sure people are thinking it.......

Is Barak Obama a Muslim and how extreme are his views? Why does he seem to want to hide his beliefs in the closet??? Is he ashamed or afraid his beliefs will hurt his chances of election, if so should his deception be permissible??? How will his faith affect his dealings in the Middle East and Pakistan?

With Americas track record of racial prejudice and extreme behavior, how long will Barak Obama stay alive if he is elected president? Has America changed that much since Martin Luther King and Malcom X??? Do we need to concentrate very hard on his running mate for Vice President?

Will John McCain survive his presidency if he wins, he is rather old for the stress and pressures of the role.... Does he have the energy to take on the backbreaking workload or will he be a part time president like George W and spend most of his time on holiday???

Does Barak Obama have any job skills or experience appropriate to being president or that qualify him for the job?

Is it ego that stops Obama from running on the same card with Hilary Clinton, surely it would sense for them to become a 16 years dream team?

When will Ben Bernanke step down from the Fed where he has been doing a horrible job?

Could Al Gore be any more hypocritical about global warming with his house, car collection and private plane useage?

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