Expect the Dollar to Crumble

Expect the $ dollar to crumble over coming months as the government buys up distressed assets and bails out the banking industry. With this perfect parachute to protect those who have made huge profits from risky investments what can we expect in the future. Financially prudent individuals and companies are essentially being punished. We have seen lower returns due to cautious investment strategies, we should have been more aggressive, taken our profits and used a government bailout to cover the losses we ultimately faced.

This is going to significantly damage the dollar as americas economy wil be burdened with worthless and worse money consuming assets. 

What is going on with Obama and his new hair dye to make him look older and more mature. they are trying to make him look like he has some experinence, knows what to do and how to bail out the economy, talk about a rock and a hard place, we have someone who profited from the S&L scandal (savings and loan back in the 80's) and someone who has no idea what he is doing and will be a puppet for a government system that is so flawed that it will soon be overtaken by China as well as India, Germany etc etc

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Obama Bin Laden

So the DNC is coming up in Denver next week..... I think it may be a bit of an abortion myself...... sorry for the poor humor but with Al Jazeera both wanting to come and being allowed to come and film it signifies the worst potential interest possible in Obama. For anyone who doesnt know Al Jazeera spends its life as an arab promoter and endorser of terror, suicide bombings and everything wrong with the world. Their glorification of violence and terror is legendary.

With the additional comments from terror organizations that publicly support Obama we really must question his Muslim heritage and what he stands for and world events that transpire if the American populace makes their greatest mistake and he was elected.

I received the following as an interesting email attachment, i dont vouch for its accuracy but i couldnt find much to corroborate any other achievements:
On another note. Someone did the math on Obama the Senator.

* He has only been a Senator for 18 months.
* With all the recesses, four day weekends, campaigning and absences,
Obama has only spent about six weeks of workdays on the Senate floor
as one of the most junior Senators.
* Most of his votes, about 80% when he was not absent, have been
'present' or 'abstain'.
* He also chairs a committee that has never met because the chairman
has never called a meeting.
* As a trial lawyer he only tried 14 cases in court - and minor ones
at that.
* As a 'community organizer' his major cause was getting the asbestos
out of a housing project. After two years of trying, the asbestos was
still there when he left and is still there even now that he is a
Senator and presumably has some pull to get things done.

That's it. His entire real world work resume.

* Six weeks work in the Senate with nothing to show for it.
* Two years as a lawyer and only 14 minor trials.
* Two years as a 'community organizer' with nothing accomplished.

Let the free world hope and pray that we go with the "Prisoner of War" rather than Obama Bin Laden

p.s Dont know if anyone has been watching the Beijing games which have been truely fantastic but spare a though for the million plus people who were forecibly relocated, without compensation to spend the remainder of their lives in ghetto squallor, to make way for the beautiful Birds Nest, Water Cube etc....... America can't fool itself in these games with a total medal tally, a gold is worth more than a silver and bronze, the Chinese have and will win these games.

p.p.s Congrats to Li Ning on his opening ceremony performance, it is very exciting to think that he owns the chinese equivalent of "Nike"

p.p.p.s Michael Phelps, i think that you are the Greatest Olympian even though my wife insists you are the Greatest Olympic Swimmer

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Oil - Black gold or White Elephant - the Bust that must inevitably come

Why oh why do i feel like the price of oil is going to come a tumbling down?

So we have a weak dollar no longer trading at parity with some of the middle eastern currency, we have a strengthening China with an insatiable demand for oil... a china that will probably also decouple its currency in the 3rd or 4th quarter of 08.... and we have a US recession, no looming but already started....

All these factors tell me oil will become a more expensive commodity because the dollar has less buying power, the big question is though how low will the dollar go....

Why do i ask this, well we know that the oil supply is finite and some major fields are slowing production, therefore it is only natural that the price rise somewhat as the "owners" of the oil try to capitalize on the sole supporter of their economy (some like Dubai are trying to turn themselves into tourism hot spots and free trade zones so they have something to fall back on - very commendable and progressive)

Canada's oil fields are fairly poor quality, thick and viscous, Texas and Central America have nice sweet crude but alot of the surface supply is tapped and deeper drilling and exploration is more costly and risky, Alaska and Russia have a strong supply, there is always Brunei and of course the Middle East.

America consumes at least 20% of the worlds oil, but China and India are gaining fast, so what will the outcome be????

I think what is happening right now is the weakness of the capital markets have driven the spectators and many investors towards solid commodities, tangiable items that they feel are safe, this makes sense, Gold is tangiable, it is considered by many to be fairly inflation proof although i am not so sure with currencies having been decoupled quite how much this applies in reality.... Platinum and other metals with high value uses i like better, which leaves you with something like oil.....We all know ethanol isnt going to take over the work, I have tried HHO ands it isnt so hot, Hydrogen would be perfect but the car manufactureres and oil companies are too strong and have to much of a vested interest to let the money spinner go until they have to.... Note most of them are using their immense profits to diversify into Wind and Solar farms as well as Nuclear power plants!!! They are planning forward with their current wealth as the middle eastern nations are!!!

Thus we see why Oil has run up, and why it has run up beyond its true value, like the real estate boom and the tech boom, investors have a pack or herd mentality and are piling into a good thing, not realising that they are making the early smart front runners rich as is always the way. These individuals will soon pile out with Billions of dollars in profit leaving people holding overpriced assets!!!

I expect Oil to be sub $100 within 12-18 months possibly sooner and i think anyone buying oil futures and options based on growth and increased prices are going to be caught with their trousers down!!!

Which does lead us back to Real Estate which is in the process of crashing, far from done and far from bottomed out, we will see the best buying opprtunities of the next 20 years within 2 years, lets sell some Oil Futures to provide the cash we need to buy all the property that the people who are currently speculating on oil will loose to foreclosure........

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Popular Culture

I had a revelation

It occurred to me tonight wasn't that Pop Idol has succeeded and become a part of popular culture, what astounded me was my realization that it was essentially a draft (NFL, NBA, College etc) Anyone of the top 10 or 20 or however many it was were on the show tonight had to attract a contract tonight or fade into history forever....

I had always seen it as a last chance or only chance for many who do not have the right network to get a break. A way to find out who 13 year old girls have a crush on so you can sell them single (they are really who buy singles for the charts, adults buy albums)

Then it got really scary they started putting people like Seal next two the acts and wow what a difference, the only one who could potentially hold his own was David Cook with Bryan Adams as they sound so alike.

Most of all, what pop idol shows you is how incredibly talented a lot of the singers today and of yesteryear have been and also what these new fad singers are missing. Thank g-d even with all the judges pushing that the talented David Cook won out, Bono, George
Michael, Bruce Springsteen and Bryan Adams have acquired another member of the raspy voice brigade

At least we can look forward to so you think you can dance where we get some real truly amazing talent!



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Entrepreneurial Myth

America is full of so called entrepreneurs, over 1,000,000 new businesses are established every year, about 2700 a day...

What most people dont understand is that they are buying themselves a job, they are not entrpreneurs, they do not have an established exit strategy, they do not have clearly defined goals with detailed steps of how they plan to reach those goals....

I do not look at any investment or deal without working out how i walk away from it, what my payoff is, how i will deal with unexpected misfortune.... Risk management is about thinking out everything that can go wrong and how to avoid it, success is planned for by understanding everything that may cause you to fail and not reach your goal.... ignoring this and calling it positive thinking is much like an ostrich burying its head in the sand.

So before you call yourself an entrepreneur, do you have clearly defined exit strategies and and have you sought out solutions to every outcome imaginable

Alternatively do you work for someone and feel that you are making them all the money and if you set up by yourself you could make more, do you feel that your expertise in a niche field is going to allow you to beat your competitors, because the thing that makes you a business owner is the ability to delegate, train and implement systems and strategies for success. Otherwise you just bought yourself a job......

Beware if you do buy yourself a job you may end up working "IN" your business rather than "ON" it and this means you may end up working longer hours for lower pay and not be able to take holidays and get a way..... I you ask anyone running their own business if they were to walk away how much would it cost them to hire someone or several people required to do their job and how much would it cost. If this figure is lower than you are paying yourself then why? and did you just buy a job and underpay yourself, you will be more dissatisfied than when it was all someone else's problem....

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Travelling like a true Road Warrior

Everyone talks about the big things in travel, I want to bring up a few of the smaller items that people so often omit or don't even know about, the creature comforts that make travel not just easier but a pleasure. Her is my top 12 items that could change your perspective......

1) The difference between a 5* hotel and a 1* is invariably their sheets - I turn the worst bed into a luxury with a 100% Silk Travel Liner. It comes complete with a pillow pocket so that even my head is lying upon the finest silk and it all fits in a 3x2" 6oz bag.
You can buy one for $60 from REI - http://www.rei.com/product/695429

2) Never check a bag again or borrow an iron. Use Space Saver Vacuum Bags are the best way to pack for travel, they will compress your clothes to 1/4 or 1/8th the size, they will leave the clothes wrinkle free and the airport TSA staff wont open them and mess up, touch or expose your clothes/ dirty laundry in public. I always carry 3 - 1 clean, 1 dirty and a back up.
You can buy them for $20 from Bed Bath & Beyond

3) Rain X Wipes - These could and will save your life, grab one and give your windows a quick wipe before you set off and for the next 3 days, no matter how much rain or snow fall you will be able to clearly see your way - make sure you get wipes as TSA will remove the liquid.

4) Buy your own GPS - It will cost you from $150 for a basic system up to 350 if you want traffic - this will take a lot of the stress out of finding your job, your hotel and your way late at night in the dark. If you work it out renting units will be more costly within 10 days. I also program my job and hotels prior to leaving home or in the airport or even on the flight so that I dont have to deal with it when I arrive and I know what time I will arrive

5) Energizer battery charger - plug it into your phone or your computer and use normal batteries to get you by!

6) Dry Cleaner Secret - Put any suit or piece of clothing in a tumble dryer for 20 minutes on medium heat and it comes out like new

7) Yak Trax are indispensables in snow and ice if you don't want to end up on your ass or looking like one! Slip them on over and pair of shoes for perfect traction in any conditions. Visit http://yaktrax.com/productspro.aspx but shop around you can get a pro for as little as $16.95

8) The dreaded 4S's may seem like an excerpt from the 7 deadly sins to you but to the frequent air traveler 4 SSSS 's in the bottom right hand corner of your ticket means extra special attention from the TSA. Your going to get everything searched and its gonna take and extra 10-50 minutes to get through security as a result..... Avoid this like the plague, adding an airline frequent flyer program and talking to your airline can reduce how often you face this problem, especially when you have last minute, one way tickets!

9) Clinical Strength Deodorant makes sure you make it through a long harrowing and often energetic day without any telltale wet patches or odor - add anti odor, anti bacterial, cooling undershirt for the perfect finish and finish with a 50ml bottle of EDT aftershave for that fresh scent.

A little more Expensive but these items make a huge difference for me:

9) IPOD Shuffle/ Noise Canceling Headphones/ Eagle Creek Travel Pillow/ Eye Mask - primarily used as white noise to block out the crying babies, engine roar on props and insulate me from the rest of the world for a little while. The travel pillow has a great pocket it folds up into and also allows you to carry all your travel items in one place - i keep my mask and ipod etc in there all the time.

10) Tom Bihn Empire builder suitcase and Brain Cell are the perfect briefcase and laptop combination. Whilst expensive the pockets are so well thought out it makes work and travel a breeze, the padded laptop case means you can drop your bag by mistake and get away with it. It will also ride ontop of your work case effortlessly.

11) You will think i am mad but quality pays for itself - Victorinox 22" Carry on plus Suit Carrier is expensive but should it break for any reason the company will get a brand new bag to you within 24 hours for free and that is for life. Expect to go through 2 lesser cases a year, so go figure, little extra upfront saves a lot of hassle in the long term.

12) Tablet notebook computer- laugh at me all you want but 20% of my jobs are a go as soon as i pull the computer out and start writing on the screen like a notepad. It saves you carrying pads of paper and writing up your notes later - use all the free time you have for the recognition training and it will virtually never make a mistake.

I hope this helps ease the woes of Travel

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Very Politically Incorrect

I know I am going where no one should go but I have a few very contentious statements, comments and questions? No one seems to be voicing these out loud but I am sure people are thinking it.......

Is Barak Obama a Muslim and how extreme are his views? Why does he seem to want to hide his beliefs in the closet??? Is he ashamed or afraid his beliefs will hurt his chances of election, if so should his deception be permissible??? How will his faith affect his dealings in the Middle East and Pakistan?

With Americas track record of racial prejudice and extreme behavior, how long will Barak Obama stay alive if he is elected president? Has America changed that much since Martin Luther King and Malcom X??? Do we need to concentrate very hard on his running mate for Vice President?

Will John McCain survive his presidency if he wins, he is rather old for the stress and pressures of the role.... Does he have the energy to take on the backbreaking workload or will he be a part time president like George W and spend most of his time on holiday???

Does Barak Obama have any job skills or experience appropriate to being president or that qualify him for the job?

Is it ego that stops Obama from running on the same card with Hilary Clinton, surely it would sense for them to become a 16 years dream team?

When will Ben Bernanke step down from the Fed where he has been doing a horrible job?

Could Al Gore be any more hypocritical about global warming with his house, car collection and private plane useage?

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Crude and Gas Prices, Global Economic Change

Its funny what travel will do for you, it may even make you cynical. As i travel all over the USA i see a huge fluctuation in the price of gas at the pump.... in many cases in excess of a dollar. Los Angeles always seems to trump at the pumps, even beating Hawaii which to my knowledge has no indigenous supply and therefore must be importing its gas from overseas.

What does all this lead me to speculate? What does my cynicism indicate.....

I think that the oil and gas companies know that with more efficient cars, alternative fuels and other such measures demand and consumption will decline, therefore they are gouging profits now to ensure their future.... The Gulf Nations know that their liquid gold is disappearing and that they have to make everything they can, capitalizing on a weak dollar and decoupling to further enhance their wealth.

Meanwhile the US governments continued investment in foreign policy that has huge financial burden and limited recompense further enhance cost and distention within the oil producing world. Expect that heating gas/oil/ electric etc rise significantly next winter creating further pressure on the already lackluster housing market as well as a sweltering summer and increased air conditioning hurting this summer in the southern states. (This will also become a major factor affecting the commercial real estate markets and causing more of a downturn, along with added market pressure.)

Ultimately how can the US deny we are entering a recession or more likely a depression, all the smart money is heading to China which now benefits from a burgeoning internal market. Look for the Yuan to decouple from the dollar after the Olympics further shaking the global market place, stocks and commodity prices.


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Roll the Dice and Play the Financial Market Lottery

Working and investing in the financial markets is for the majority the same as visiting a casino, ill thought out investments, lack of knowledge/ understanding and of course the untold riches of success and high rates of return draw the more aggressive individuals into a high risk game of guess and second guess. The general parameters are the house always wins, much like a casino, and by this we are talking major financial institutions and experienced players who are hedging and using complex financial instruments to allay their risk and to pass it to the investor.

The secret is to work on a long term ride in lower return funds - growth and income is really the place to look and avoid individual stock picks in favour of a mutual fund/ etf to spread and mitigate your risk. Remember that market downturns are buying opportunities more than anything else..... Just maybe not till the end of this year or early next!

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Troubled Market - Obvious Change Required, But How to Achieve It

Performance Related Pay has been the primary method of compensation for high level employees for the last 20+ years....Anyone with the ability to affect the volume of sales or profitability from sales should be directly compensated from this money, thus motivating them to bring in more business, cut costs and increase profit. It is also one of the primary components of the SubPrime Crisis and other financial mishaps.... With huge bonuses available at the end of each year and one good bonus being enough to pay for a house, set you up for life or start your own fund/ company employees are willing to take huge risk to ensure their bonus this year is amazing with little or no care for two to three years distant....

With this factor in mind, large financial institutions have phenomenal profit and growth so long as the market has the capacity to absorb it, however in economic downturn many of these short term maneuvers become illiquid and are unsaleable. Thus the bank has to take the brunt of the loss.

When i use the term absorb, I am of course taking about off balance sheet, international companies. This is something that Goldman Sacks has excelled at and continues to excel at by hiring the brightest and the best. It is only a matter of time before which they have to admit openly to some of the losses they have incurred and to some of the downsides of their investments that they can no longer hide. The major factor is that no one wants a "holey" ($0) bonus so they will continue to find ways to hide losses and to look like the shining hero's of the sub prime crisis. Remember they were no less greedy and no smarter than all the other institutions they just hide it better! Thus i factor a major "scandal" within the next 8-12 months which will significantly affect their share price.

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